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At the end of 2024, the official NBU rate was approximately 43.93 UAH per euro, but during 2025–2026 the currency steadily appreciated. At the start of 2026, the euro surpassed the “psychological” barrier of 50 UAH/€. By May 2026, the rate stabilized around 51.30 UAH/€. This trend was driven by a combination of internal and external factors: economic, political, and monetary. Key reasons for the euro’s growth are listed below:

• Global price fluctuations (oil, gas, etc.) affecting Ukraine’s export-import balance;
• High inflation in Ukraine forcing the NBU to pursue strict monetary policy;
• Change in EU macroeconomic indicators (inflation, GDP growth, unemployment rate);
• European Central Bank policies (interest rate decisions) shaping the EUR/USD rate;
• State of hostilities and external aid (military and budget support) influencing foreign currency inflows.

Thus, the euro exchange rate reflects both domestic financial stability and broader trends in the Eurozone and global markets.

Before detailing the factors, let’s recall official benchmarks and forecasts. The 2026 state budget draft sets the rate at 49.4 UAH per €. This is a technical basis for government income and expenditure calculations. The NBU and international organizations (IMF) do not provide official hryvnia/euro forecasts but highlight exchange rate flexibility. Kyiv School of Economics noted a real rate of about 48.5 UAH/€ at the time of analysis without specific forecasts. Globus Bank’s CEO S. Mamedov has optimistic expectations: according to him, in 2026 the euro will fluctuate between 50–52 UAH, and the dollar between 43–45 UAH.

It is also important to remember that the euro rate in Ukraine is “doubly dependent”: it combines the dollar/hryvnia and euro/dollar rates. Changes in the EUR/USD exchange rate on the global market automatically affect the hryvnia euro rate. For instance, even with a stable USD/UAH rate, the euro price may rise if the dollar weakens against the euro. This is crucial for those saving in euros.

Main Factors Driving the Euro Exchange Rate Increase

Below are the key factors restraining or encouraging euro appreciation:

• Inflation in Ukraine – in 2026 the NBU expects inflation to drop to ~7.5%, but a high base price level and gradual monetary policy easing may pressure the rate. In 2025 inflation reached 8% year-on-year, half of which was due to the “imported” component (euro strengthening against the dollar).
• NBU interest rates – high rates (15% as of April 2026) curb devaluation, but will likely decrease if inflation stabilizes. Maintaining a tight policy supports the hryvnia but borrowing needs (due to military expenses) increase foreign currency demand.
• Economic situation in the EU – the ECB forecasts a slight economic slowdown, but inflation in the Eurozone in 2026 will remain around 1.8–1.9%. Stable economic expectations and gradual inflation decline indicate no shocks for the euro rate. However, if the ECB cuts rates (expected in June 2026), this could weaken the euro against the dollar.
• Ukraine’s trade balance – the external trade deficit remains significant. Although the EU share among trading partners is increasing, dependence on energy imports is critical. Rising purchases (especially gas) boost euro demand.
• International financial support – stable aid flows (over $50 billion projected by NBU for 2026) support reserves and prevent sudden rate spikes. Delays or cuts in aid could quickly increase currency demand and euro rate.
• Military and political risks – ongoing hostilities negatively affect investor confidence. Any escalations or news of failed negotiations immediately cause demand surges for safe currencies (USD, EUR) and hryvnia depreciation.

Therefore, the short-term euro rate is influenced by external shocks and domestic macro policies, and forecasts depend on negotiations, reforms, and international support.

Euro Exchange Rate Forecasts for 2026

Currently, the government and analysts do not give clear official guidelines for the euro rate but several assumptions can be highlighted:

1. The 2026 budget draft sets the rate at 49.4 UAH/€.
2. Bankers’ interviews – the head of Globus Bank forecasts the euro in the range of 50–52 UAH/€.
3. International organizations – the IMF and NBU provide macro scenarios without specific EUR/UAH figures but emphasize transition to flexible pricing and a 5% inflation target going forward.

The chart shows the real euro exchange rate dynamics in 2026: in winter months 1 € cost about 48 UAH, rising to about 51 UAH by early May. Key trends remain uneven “jumps” amid external news (stock markets, ECB decisions) and stability during relatively calm periods.

Additional assessments: Dragon Capital focuses on USD/UAH (about 45 UAH) by the end of 2026, so no specific EUR/UAH numbers are given. Kyiv School notes that the expected hryvnia strengthening mainly concerns the dollar, with the euro rate anchored to two currency pairs.

Should You Buy Euros Now?

When deciding on currency savings acquisition, consider several aspects:

• Savings at the current rate – if traders expect further euro appreciation, buying now might be advantageous. For example, expectations of USD weakening due to Federal Reserve policy or potential ECB rate cuts may make the euro more expensive.
• Budget forecasts – the government sets the rate at 49.4 UAH/€ for end-2026, so following “budget logic,” buying euros now (around 50–51) may not be justified. However, this is a technical indicator, not a market guarantee.
• Impact of EUR/USD – even with a stable USD/UAH, the euro value can rise or fall depending on EUR/USD behavior. If you save in euros, keep an eye on global markets and possible currency interventions in Europe.
• Alternative options – if the main goal is capital protection, compare the euro with the dollar and hryvnia assets. With expected US monetary easing next year, the hryvnia might strengthen against the dollar, but the euro situation is more complex.

In brief: Buying euros “in advance” makes sense if further hryvnia depreciation or euro/dollar increases are expected. Still, monitoring the currency market is important. The NBU and analysts recommend basing decisions on fundamental indicators (inflation, budget deficit, external inflows). For long-term savings, diversifying is advisable: allocate some funds in foreign currency and some in hryvnia and foreign securities.

Conclusions

The euro exchange rate in Ukraine in 2026 is shaped by a range of factors: domestic (military expenses, NBU monetary policy, budget deficit) and external (EU economy, ECB policy, EUR/USD behavior). Official forecasts (government or NBU) mostly serve as technical references, while the real rate responds to market expectations and shocks. At about 51 UAH/€, global analysts estimate a possible range of 50–52 UAH/€.

Current trends indicate some stabilization after a sharp jump earlier in the year, but risks remain high. Ukrainians considering euro purchases should balance expectations of rate changes with their financial plans. If the hryvnia does not unexpectedly strengthen in the coming months (e.g., due to a sharp rise in export revenues or additional aid), gradual currency buying is possible. Importantly, use well-founded signals (macroeconomic analysis, NBU and international forecasts) and avoid acting on panic or incidental news.